More mouths to feed. Fewer hands to work.
What could the trajectory of our country’s food and future be?

In 2050, the world is expected to support nearly 10 billion people, with almost 150 million of them living in the Philippines. This projection does not simply mean more people; this fact demands more food!

Experts say we need to increase our global cereal supply, including rice, by 70 to 100 percent, or about 1 billion metric tons per year. Enough to save our people from hunger and food insecurity.

If we disregard these figures today, we could see severe global hunger 24 years from now. And should that happen, we could expect the worst, as each nation might stop trading food with neighboring countries, and we would have to stand on our own in producing our food.

How food-secure are we?

Let’s talk about our staple food–rice. Over the last decade, the Rice Self-Sufficiency Ratio (RSSR) of the Philippines has been declining dramatically, hitting a record low in 2024 at 71.1 percent, the lowest in 37 years. What does it mean? It simply means that imported rice still accounts for a large share of the rice we consume as a nation. In fact, the country recorded its highest rice import volume in history, at 4.8 million metric tons (MT) in 2024. Worse, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected it to reach up to 5.5 MMT this year.

Meanwhile, experts believe that to achieve 100% self-sufficiency, we need to meet domestic demand for roughly 15 MMT of milled rice per year. This amount is 2-3 MMT short of our 2025 milled rice production of 12.4 MMT.

Let's delve quickly into our facts. Our country has only 4.75 million hectares of arable land, while the average palay yield per hectare is around 4.1 metric tons. If our maths are correct, we can only get roughly 19.4 MMT of palay or 12.2 MMT of milled rice. These calculations exactly mirror our situation today.

Moreover, our diet reveals why we need to produce more rice. We are hailed as the highest rice consumers globally, with around 110 to 118 kilograms of rice per person annually. Rice shares 34% of our average daily food intake, providing up to 58% of daily energy.

So in our pursuit of being fully sufficient, two factors remain on the surface–an increase in national rice production and a reorientation of the Filipino diet, possibly with a little less rice on our plate or more responsible rice consumption to prevent food loss. Highlighting initiatives like PhilRice’s “Be Riceponsible” can inspire responsible consumption and support sustainable practices.

Talking about the former, meeting our 15 MMT target could be achieved through various ways. One is increasing the average yield of palay per hectare. This target could be achieved by providing higher-quality, more productive seeds, applying proven crop care methods, and using effective mechanized technologies for production. These are the very things that the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF), now in its second phase, has been trying to address.

Another is curbing postharvest losses. PHilMech’s Rice Processing Systems under RCEF has a promising 65 percent milling recovery, higher than the national average. With this, its beneficiaries–the farmers’ cooperatives and associations and the local government units–could save more of their harvest, which our people can consume.

These may look easy, but many factors are dragging down our production. The impact of climate change, especially with super El Niño events and super typhoons, worsens droughts and floods. Soil degradation, with 45% of arable land eroded, reduces productivity and water retention by 50%. These urgent issues threaten our food security and require immediate action.

The Flickering Embers

Where have all the next generation gone?

Our farmers are aging. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the older age groups accounted for a rise in the agricultural workforce over the last decade, with 75.3% aged 65 years and above, 62.8% aged 60 to 64 years, and 44.2% aged 55 to 59 years.

On the contrary, we saw a dramatic decline in the younger age group, which now makes up only about 8.9% of the agricultural workforce. Young Filipinos are shifting toward technology, the gig economy, and specialized services that offer better pay than the tiring work on farms. Engaging youth is crucial to sustaining our agricultural sector and ensuring national food security.

In a study conducted by Palis (2020), around 73% of farmer-parents believed that their children have no future in rice farming. This belief is due to their experiences, such as being physically tiring and not particularly economically rewarding. Also, parents dream of a more stable job for their kids than farming, and, worst of all, their children have no interest in farming at all.

Experts believe that if this trend does not change over the next 10 to 12 years and youth continue to shy away from farming, it could negatively impact our food security. Remember that when we talk about food, we are also talking about life, so this issue is not optional.

Our food and future depend on the next generation actively participating in agriculture. They are flickering embers, waiting to be fanned into flame, and their involvement is crucial for our nation's security.

The question is: who dares to reignite their passion for agriculture?

---

References

• de Leon, Teresa Joi & Orcullo, Louie Gerard & Manalo, Jaime. (2023). What is the current thinking on youth and agriculture in the Philippines?.


• Philippine Statistics Authority. (2024, December 28). 2022 Census of Agriculture and Fisheries Agricultural Households and Operators. https://psa.gov.ph/content/2022-census-agriculture-and-fisheries-agricultural-households-and-operators.


• United Nations. (2013, December 3) World must sustainably produce 70 per cent more food by mid-century – UN report. https://news.un.org/en/story/2013/12/456912.


• International Rice Research Institute. (2025, October 10). Fastforward: IRRI model scenarios peek into the future of PH rice self-sufficiency in 2050. https://www.irri.org/news-and-events/news/fastforward-irri-model-scenarios-peek-future-ph-rice-self-sufficiency-2050.


• Journal, Philippine & Palis, Florencia. (2020). Aging Filipino Rice Farmers and Their Aspirations for Their Children. Philippine Journal of Science. 149. 321-331. 10.56899/149.02.10.


• Philippine Rice Research Institute. (2025). RiceLytics. Department of Agriculture. https://ricelytics.philrice.gov.ph/.